(Right Country) – It’s easy to forget, with the consequential nature of our presidential election, that there are many elections happening all around the country that could also determine the future of our country.
I’m talking about the House and Senate races which will determine which party controls which chamber of Congress.
Fortunately, while the race for the White House is neck-in-neck, the race to control the Senate is much safer for the GOP.
In fact, the possibility of a blue wave in the upper chamber is so low that even vehement Never Trumper Chris Wallace—who you may remember as one of the worst moderators in debate history—thinks there is no chance.
“You would need a blue wave — you would need all of the races that are too close to call right now going Democrat for them to take control of the Senate,” Wallace told Fox News’ “America’s Newsroom.”
He said that while it “could” happen, and, well, in theory anything “could” happen.
The numbers, meanwhile, just don’t indicate this is likely.
“The current balance of power is 53-47. In Alabama, the incumbent Democrat Doug Jones is considered almost certain to lose. … That now makes it 54-46, so Democrats are going to need a net pickup of four Senate seats plus Kamala Harris is the vice president to break ties, or five if Donald Trump wins,” he explained.
If Joe Biden wins the White House, this would give his running mate, current CA Senator Kamala Harris, the authority to break vote ties.
This means that the Democrats would only need four seats to hold majority power, as BPR explains.
“But if President Donald Trump wins the race, then Democrats would need five full votes to hold majority control, according to Wallace’s analysis,” they explain.
He did not specify if he had taken into account the outcome of Harris’ own seat in the Senate. By California law, should Biden win the election, Harris’ seat would be assigned by Governor Gavin Newsom.
Mitch McConnell, Senate Majority Leader, said that the fight for the future of the Senate is fierce.
“It’s a 50-50 proposition. We have a lot of exposure. This is a huge Republican class… There’s dogfights all over the country,” McConnell while campaigning in Kentucky on Wednesday.
He said essentially the same thing back in September:
Mitch McConnell doesn't seem overly optimistic when asked on Fox News whether the GOP will hold the Senate.
"We knew this would be a struggle. It’s a 50/50 proposition. The outcome of the Senate could go either way."
Names 7 races where GOP-held seats are in danger of flipping. pic.twitter.com/KT1cz8gwrO
— Justin Baragona (@justinbaragona) September 10, 2020
Wallace described McConnell’s projections as “honest,” but he also conceded that the Kentucky Senator may have applied some “spin” for the sake of drumming up support.
“To a certain degree that’s spin because he wants to get Republican votes out. We think that the vast majority — if you believe voter registration — that the vast majority of the votes that have turned out … are going to be pro-leaning democratic probably,” he said.
“So he really needs a big — and the president needs — a big turnout on election day. Those tend to be more pro-Trump, more Republican voters.”
BPR notes that Wallace failed to note that, while the Democrats have always led in early voting, they’re surprisingly not doing so hot this time around.
“After weeks of Democrats outvoting them by mail, Republican voters stormed early voting precincts in person this week, taking large bites out of their opponents’ historic lead in pre-Election Day ballots,” Politico reported of Florida early voting on Oct. 24th.
“The Democratic advantage was still huge as of Saturday morning: 387,000 ballots. But that’s a 21 percent reduction from Democrats’ high water mark, set three days prior. The election is in 10 days.”
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